Newsletter 44

Despite (or because of) the recession, and contrary to some predictions of a fall-off, online shopping at end of November and start of December has been unusually buoyant – though analysts remain guarded about overall trends.

IMRG says Monday 1 December was the busiest online shopping day ever recorded. But although transaction volumes were 3 per cent higher than the 2007 record, payments service provider SecureTrading says the value was almost exactly the same as last year’s.

To put the increase in context, eDigital Research believes online shopping traffic was up 32 per cent over what it calls “the average October day”, whereas at the same time last year it was up 45 per cent, and the year before that the increase was 83 per cent. SecureTrading however says traffic was up 68 per cent.

These are all large rises, of course, in comparison with the flat sales on the high street. Even Deloitte’s prediction of a 10 per cent increase in online Christmas sales would be high in any other environment. It expects online spending to reach £4.7 billion this year (£4.2 billion last year).

 

According to Maritz Research, 36 per cent of shoppers say that they intend to buy the majority of their presents on the internet this year, and the figure rises to half for 35- to 44-year-olds. And research commissioned by Ivobank suggests that 88 per cent (29.09 million people) plan to buy at least one Christmas gift online. More than a quarter of respondents to a poll said they were planning to buy 11 or more gifts online.

Figures from the US provide an illuminating point of comparison. comScore says $534 million was spent online during Black Friday (28 November) – up 1 per cent on last year. But is says online sales were down 4 per cent across the first four weeks of the Christmas run-up, amounting to $10.41 billion.

Despite evidence of a plateau in online transactions, Deloitte says online consumers in the UK are planning to spend an average of £773 overall this Christmas compared, with £655 for the total population.